By Jessica Bukowski in Western Australia.
Election 2025 Unpacked: State-by-State Breakdown and Insights
This piece continues our state-by-state series, turning the spotlight on Western Australia (WA) and what’s on the line.
It’s only fitting that the WA Breakdown serves as the finale of McKell’s 2025 state-by-state series. As the last state where polls close, Western Australia has often been the nation’s election-night decider—more than once, the country has turned its eyes westward, waiting for clarity when the eastern states remain locked in knife-edge seat battles.
That is what happened in 2022, with seats too close to call in Queensland, NSW, and Victoria, people’s attention turned across the Nullarbor. WA delivered Labor four additional seats turning Hasluck, Pearce, Swan, and Tangney red, on top of five established local Labor MPs. Such was the strength of Labor’s vote in the West, they gained the third senate spot, which was a first for Labor at a half-senate election. The teal wave also reached the west coast, with community independent Kate Chaney elected to the blue-ribbon seat of Curtin. The 2022 election left the Liberals with just one federal member in metropolitan Perth.
The strength of Labor’s result in 2022 is often attributed to two factors: the hugely popular Labor Premier Mark McGowan and high levels of dissatisfaction toward then PM Scott Morrison who, together with WA MP and Attorney-General Christian Porter sided with Clive Palmer during the High Court case to keep WA’s borders open during COVID[1].
WA is a battleground for both major parties
WA plays a different role at this election as Labor needs to retain seats, while any path to government for the Coalition includes regaining traditionally conservative seats such as Tangney and Curtin.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from ABC data[2]
The state’s outsized role in federal contests comes from its time zone—results here can sway the national outcome late in the night—and from its increasing political volatility.
Compounding this is WA’s state-level context: the Labor Party won the March 2025 WA state election decisively.[3] While state and federal voting patterns differ, the recent win bolsters federal Labor’s local campaign. The WA Labor campaign machine is also match fit and an effective operation.[4] Prime Minister Anthony Albanese specifically chose Perth to launch Labor’s federal election campaign, replicating his 2022 strategy and signalling Labor’s intent to maintain and hopefully build on its 2022 gains.[5]
Successive Federal redistributions have contributed to WA’s fluid political map. Seat changes in 2016 (gaining Burt), 2022 (losing Stirling), and 2025 (gaining Bullwinkle) have altered traditional margins, and demographic shifts continue to change voter dynamics.[6]
There are several key marginal contests to watch
Bullwinkel (notionally ALP, 3.3 per cent): The newly created federal seat is a three-cornered contest between Labor, Liberals, and Nationals. Bullwinkel includes a mix of outer suburban and regional communities and is notionally Labor with a 3.3 per cent margin. The federal government’s planned live sheep export ban is a key issue which has energised support for the Nationals and Liberals in rural areas.[7] Former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies is contesting the seat for the Nationals. She has looked to distinguish herself from her Coalition counterpart by supporting Labor’s Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive, which is also backed by the WA mining industry, but not endorsed by the Liberal Party[8].
Tangney (ALP, 2.8 per cent): Formerly a safe Liberal seat, Labor’s former dolphin trainer Sam Lim flipped it in 2022. Tangney is a culturally diverse seat with more than 16 per cent of residents identifying as Chinese and is also WA’s most marginal Labor-held electorate.[9] Both major parties are pouring resources and leader visits into Tangney, and analysts suggest a tight contest, with cost-of-living concerns and the government’s live sheep export policy featuring prominently in local debates.[10]
Moore (LIB, 0.9 per cent): One of the Coalition’s most marginal seats in WA, Moore was the only one in Perth left to the Liberals following Labor’s strong result in 2022. Ian Goodenough has held the seat since 2013 but lost pre-selection to former Liberal MP Vince Connelly. Connelly previously represented Stirling in Federal Parliament (2016–2019) until the seat’s abolition before the 2022 election. At that time, he lost a preselection challenge to Goodenough for Moore and unsuccessfully challenged Labor’s Anne Aly in Cowan in 2022. Goodenough is recontesting as an Independent, while Labor is running Tom French for the second time in that seat. In a sign there is no love lost between Goodenough and the Liberals, he is directing preferences to the Nationals in the Senate, while leaving his lower house how-to-vote card blank[11].
Curtin (IND v LIB, 1.3 per cent): Independent MP Kate Chaney holds Curtin with a slim 1.3 per cent margin after turning the traditionally safe Liberal seat teal in 2022.[12] Over the past three years, Chaney has focused on climate action, decarbonisation, and political transparency.[13] The Liberal Party is mounting a strong challenge with candidate Tom White, a former Uber executive. White’s campaign launches featured Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and former WA premiers Richard Court and Colin Barnett, underscoring the party’s commitment to reclaiming the seat.[14] Former Prime Minister John Howard has also been on the hustings. The electorate’s overlap with the state seat of Churchlands—which the Liberals narrowly retained in the recent state election—suggests a competitive race ahead.[15]
Fremantle (ALP, 16.9 per cent): Ordinarily Fremantle would not be on a ‘seats to watch’ list but it is one of two Labor incumbent vs teal contests (the other being Bean in ACT[16]). Independent Kate Hulett ran at the recent WA State Election but fell short by 424 votes.[17] She has since thrown her hat in the federal ring, campaigning on issues such as cost of living, housing, environment and energy, and “proper scrutiny” of the AUKUS deal.[18] Labor holds Fremantle with a healthy margin of 16.9 per cent, but Hulett has placed third on the how-to-vote cards of the Liberals, Greens and Labor which has boosted her overall chances.[19]
Forrest (LIB, 4.2 per cent): Forrest has been held by Liberal MP Nola Marino since 2007. Marino’s retirement and a strong campaign by Independent Sue Chapman, whose strategy takes inspiration from Helen Haines and the regional Victorian seat of Indi, has seen this once-safe Liberal seat in play[20]. Former Senator Ben Small is running for the Liberal Party after a failed preselection challenge against Marino in 2016. A key local issue is an offshore wind project. Supported by Labor, Small opposes the renewable energy development, while Chapman is taking a more nuanced approach, citing the need for more community consultation, but not explicitly opposing the potential project.[21]
WA voters demand action on cost of living, economic stability, and the energy transition
WA voters are consistently motivated by issues that reflect the state’s economic distinctiveness:
Cost of living remains the dominant issue for WA voters, especially regarding housing affordability and rising grocery prices.[22] The housing crisis is acutely felt in WA, with both young families and older residents expressing frustration over high rents, unattainable home ownership, and the impact on daily life.[23] These concerns are echoed in national surveys, but are particularly pronounced in WA due to rapid population growth and supply constraints.
Resource royalties and economic management: Many West Australians are wary of federal intervention in mining and energy policy, but the industry has welcomed the Government’s Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive. The scheme which Labor argues supports downstream value-add industries is not endorsed by the Liberal Party.[24]
Climate and transition jobs: WA is the epicentre of the energy transition debate, with major investments planned in hydrogen, lithium, and battery production. Voters are split between those concerned about job losses in traditional industries and those focused on future-facing economic shifts. Specific projects are proving to be a lightning rod for local voters: Labor has approved an offshore wind farm near Bunbury (seat of Forrest), while in seat of O’Connor in WA’s Southwest, Collie’s retiring coal-fired power station was announced as one of the Coalition’s seven proposed reactor sites.[25]
GST floors, voting queues and sheep – uniquely WA issues that may be a wild card on election day
GST: The WA GST deal, negotiated by Morrison and McGowan and since extended by Labor, mandates a floor of 75-cent return per GST dollar. This agreement, considered by some the 21st century’s worst public policy decision, has seen its projected cost balloon by $44 billion to $53 billion through 2029/30.[26] While much has been made of Dutton’s reticence to the deal when it was bought to Cabinet in 2018,[27] both Albanese and Dutton have committed to honouring the deal. The Prime Minister signed a pledge on the front page of The West Australian (and the reporter’s arm) to drive home the point.
Polling place management and wait times. The 2025 WA state election faced criticism over staffing shortages, ballot paper allocation, and long queues, prompting an independent inquiry led by Malcolm McCusker.[28] While the AEC has increased federal election resources (more staff, polling places, and electronic roll mark-off devices) compared to 2022,[29] voter confidence remains a concern due to the state election’s operational issues.
Keep the Sheep: Delivering on a 2019 election commitment, the federal government has banned Australia’s live sheep trade, legislating the phasing out the industry over the next four years. The Coalition has committed to overturning the ban. With slogans like “FLOCK OFF” and “PUT LABOR LAST” the Keep the Sheep campaign is targeting electorates in Perth – notably Bullwinkle and Tangney—and encouraging country residents to lobby friends and family in key seats.[30] However, political analysts question whether the campaign will impact voting intentions of metropolitan voters.[31]
Keep your eyes peeled for a late-night showdown
WA’s time zone makes it a decisive late-night player. If the Coalition picks up several eastern seats early, WA could determine whether Labor holds government. Tangney and Curtin will be must-watch—if Labor holds the former and the Liberals can’t unseat Chaney in the latter, it could be a sign that the Coalition’s path to victory is narrowing.
End Notes
[1] Riga, J. (2022). Federal election 2022 updates: Coalition’s support of Clive Palmer affected WA vote, Michaelia Cash says. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/federal-election-live-blog-labor-government-liberal-party/101088846
[2] Green, A. (2025). Federal Election Preview: Western Australia. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-wa
[3] ABC News. (2025). WA election results. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-15/wa-election-persol-kelly-electoral-commission-analysis/105053840
[4] Curtis, K. (2025). Federal election 2025: Battle for Bullwinkle plays out on the doorsteps of voters. The West Australian. Accessed online: https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2025/federal-election-2025-battle-for-bullwinkel-plays-out-on-the-doorsteps-of-voters-c-17951138
[5] Bourke, K. (2025). Labor launches federal election campaign in WA. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-14/labor-launches-election-campaign-in-wa/105171826
[6] ABC News. (2025). 2025 federal election preview – WA. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-national
[7] Mangan, S. (2025). Five seats that could change the course of the election. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-26/five-regional-seats-to-watch-this-federal-election/105157292; Shine, R. (2024). Former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies takes tilt at new Perth federal seat of Bullwinkel. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-25/mia-davies-runs-for-new-federal-perth-electorate-of-bullwinkel/104142972
[8] Hastie, H. (2025). Davies on her own in supporting Labor’s mining tax sweetener: Cash. The Sydney Morning Herald. Accessed online: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/mia-davies-on-her-own-in-supporting-labor-s-mining-tax-sweetener-cash-20250417-p5lsj8.html
[9] Withers, C. (2025) Tangney is a federal seat on a knife edge as both Labor and Liberals pitch to voters. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-06/tangney-federal-election-2025-crucial-wa-seat/105128306
[10] Bourke, K. (2025). These Western Australian seats could decide who forms the next Australian government. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/2025-federal-election-wa-seats-to-watch/105109146
[11] McIlroy, T. (2025). Liberal defectors could thwart Dutton’s bid for power. The Australian Financial Review. Accessed online: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/liberal-defectors-could-thwart-dutton-s-bid-for-power-20250421-p5lt4v
[12] Bourke, K. (2025). These Western Australian seats could decide who forms the next Australian government. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/2025-federal-election-wa-seats-to-watch/105109146
[13] Canales, S. (2025). Independents and minor parties may decide who runs Australia. Who and what will win their support? The Guardian. Accessed online: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/31/independents-and-minor-parties-may-decide-who-runs-australia-who-and-what-will-win-their-support
[14] Bourke, K. (2025). These Western Australian seats could decide who forms the next Australian government. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/2025-federal-election-wa-seats-to-watch/105109146
[15] Bourke, K. (2025). These Western Australian seats could decide who forms the next Australian government. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/2025-federal-election-wa-seats-to-watch/105109146
[16]Bushnell, I. (2025). Labor’s David Smith can’t rest on his margin as electoral climate heats up. Region Canberra. Accessed online: https://region.com.au/labors-david-smith-cant-rest-on-his-margin-as-electoral-climate-heats-up/852843/
[17] Green, A. (2025). Fremantle – WA Election 2025. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/frem
[18] Hulett, K. (2025). My Priorities. Kate for Fremantle. Accessed online: https://www.kateforfremantle.com/priorities
[19] Hastie, H. (2025). King downplays teal’s threat to Labor in Fremantle. WA Today. Accessed online: https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-news-live-teen-due-in-court-today-over-north-beach-ride-outs-20250428-p5luwk.html?post=p58kml#p58kml
[20] Rabe, T. (2025). The surgeon aiming to turn a Liberal seat teal in WA wine country. The Australian Financial Review. Accessed online: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-surgeon-aiming-to-turn-a-liberal-seat-teal-in-wa-wine-country-20250423-p5ltpi
[21] Rabe, T. (2025). The surgeon aiming to turn a Liberal seat teal in WA wine country. The Australian Financial Review. Accessed online: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-surgeon-aiming-to-turn-a-liberal-seat-teal-in-wa-wine-country-20250423-p5ltpi
[22] Tan, C. (2025). Western Australian election: Voters’ key concerns as party leaders make their final pitches. SBS News. Accessed online: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/western-australian-election-voters-key-concerns-as-party-leaders-make-their-final-pitches/0tgc472s4; Roy Morgan. (2025). Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades. Roy Morgan. Accessed online: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9797-most-important-issues-facing-australia-january-2025
[23] Tan, C. (2025). Western Australian election: Voters’ key concerns as party leaders make their final pitches. SBS News. Accessed online: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/western-australian-election-voters-key-concerns-as-party-leaders-make-their-final-pitches/0tgc472s4
[24] Hastie, H. (2025). Davies on her own in supporting Labor’s mining tax sweetener: Cash. The Sydney Morning Herald. Accessed online: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/mia-davies-on-her-own-in-supporting-labor-s-mining-tax-sweetener-cash-20250417-p5lsj8.html
[25] McArthur, B. (2025). Energy projects in South West WA threaten votes for major federal parties. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-21/energy-projects-south-west-wa-federal-election-labor-liberals/105152524
[26] Crabb, A. (2024). Western Australia has trapped the major parties in a $53b GST trap – because no one dares anger the Vengeful Deity of the West. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-04/annabel-crabb-on-western-australia-gst-tax-policy-politics/104304254
[27] Wang, J. (2024). Opposition Leader Peter Dutton attacked in Labor attack ad over WA GST carve-up. News.com.au. Accessed online: https://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/opposition-leader-peter-dutton-attacked-in-labor-attack-ad-over-wa-gst-carveup/news-story/c00dc5c34cdcaee62a118381ed4b5936
[28] Cook Labor Government. (2025). McCusker to lead independent inquiry into the management of the 2025 WA election. Government of WA. Accessed online: https://www.wa.gov.au/government/media-statements/Cook%20Labor%20Government/McCusker-to-lead-independent-inquiry-into-the-management-of-the-2025-WA-Election-20250402
[29] AEC. (2025). AEC federal election plans progressing well in WA. AEC. Accessed online: https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2025/04-09.htm
[30] Forrester, K. (2025). Sheep farmers’ live sheep export ban post attracts election attention. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-27/live-sheep-export-ban-debate-federal-election-2025/105177746
[31] Withers, C. (2025) Tangney is a federal seat on a knife edge as both Labor and Liberals pitch to voters. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-06/tangney-federal-election-2025-crucial-wa-seat/105128306
SOCIAL SHARE