Amidst the speculation of when the federal election will be called, West Australians are keen to remind the rest of the country that there is an election on right now.
Pre-poll for the 2025 WA State Election opened last week, ahead of the 8 March poll. Over 250,000 people, or 13 per cent of total electors, have already cast their vote.
Off the back of two record breaking elections, WA Labor holds 53 of the 59 seats in the Lower House, with the Liberal-National alliance needing to win 24 seats to form government. A win seems all but assured for Roger Cook and the WA Labor team. Even if there was a 13 per cent swing against the WA Labor Government, Cook would still hold the record for second biggest election win in WA history.
For those not across the ins and outs of WA politics, a brief recap:
In 2017, Mark McGowan promised “fresh ideas” and was handsomely rewarded with the biggest WA Labor victory on record, disposing a two-term Liberal Government led by Colin Barnett. Fast forward to 2021 and with an approval rating of 88 per cent, McGowan and WA Labor did the impossible – winning with a record high again.
The WA Liberal Party was reduced to two seats in the Lower House (only one of those in metro Perth), while the Nationals held four seats. The Liberals entered an alliance with the Nationals in 2021, rather than a formal coalition. As the larger block, the Nationals became the Opposition Party, initially led by Mia Davies (who is now contesting the new federal seat of Bullwinkle). The Liberals were led by David Honey, Member for Cottesloe who not only ended up losing the leadership, but also his preselection for the 2025 ticket. Enter Shane Love, as Leader of the Opposition generally and the Nationals specifically and Libby Mettam, Leader of the Liberal Party.
McGowan, stepped down as Premier and WA Labor Leader in mid-2023, handing over the reins to Deputy Premier Roger Cook. Health Minister during COVID, turned Minister for State Development and Tourism, Cook has been Deputy Leader or Leader of WA Labor for 17 years.
WA Labor’s “Doing What’s Right for WA” vs WA Liberal’s “Right Priorities. Real Solutions.
With six consecutive budget surpluses up their sleeve, underpinned by mining royalties and strong economic growth, what are the parties spending money on?
WA Labor policy highlights include:
“Made in WA” plan – including $75 million to begin making major energy infrastructure in WA by establishing two new Western Power manufacturing facilities and $50 million to kickstart battery manufacturing. WA Labor also announced a Residential Battery Scheme to help WA families purchase batteries for their homes.
Education – $745 million for 11 new schools and upgrades to dozens more. As well as $50 million to introduce free full-time school-based kindy for four-year-olds and expand out-of-school care. $89 million committed to upgrade air conditioning in schools.
Housing – more than $1.5 billion dollars to boost affordability and supply by increasing stamp duty thresholds, funding rental projects and social housing, offering tax concessions for build-to-rent developments, and expanding shared equity schemes.
Health – Expansion and upgrades of emergency health care including a $93.3 million plan to redevelop, expand and modernise the emergency department at Royal Perth Hospital, and expanding the WA Virtual Emergency Department program. WA Labor has also committed funding to specific health initiatives such as reducing barriers to ADHD care by allowing GPs to diagnose and prescribe medication.
WA Liberals policy highlights include:
Health – Given Mettam has been Shadow Minister for Health, it is perhaps unsurprising that health policies have been a focus of the WA Liberal campaign. These include rebuilding Royal Perth Hospital in stages, with an initial investment of $80 million, a $400 million Regional Health Development Initiative and better dental care in regional WA, as well as establishing an eating disorder facility at Fiona Stanley Hospital.
Energy – the WA Liberals have committed to new gas generation capacity while extending the lifespan of Collie’s coal fired power station until new renewables come online. They have also pledged to lift the ban on uranium mining in WA.
Housing – WA Liberals are committing to cut stamp duty for first home buyers and have announced $500 million in funding for essential infrastructure such as sewerage, roads and water to build 100,000 new homes in key growth areas.
Education – WA Liberals have announced over $200 million to prioritise children’s development, including better infrastructure, as well as support for ADHD services and speech pathology in schools, dental services and a play-based learning strategy.
What to watch
Let’s talk about Basil
Basil Zempilas, the Lord Mayor of Perth and Channel 7 media personality first rose to prominence calling the famous Steve Bradbury “last man standing” race at the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics back in 2002. Zempilas is the WA Liberals star candidate (in general) but specifically for Churchlands.
A traditional Liberal seat, WA Labor won Churchlands by a margin of 0.81 per cent in 2021, making it the most marginal seat in the state. A redistribution has seen the margin increase in WA Labor’s favour to 1.6 per cent. Christine Tonkin, the WA Labor incumbent is re-contesting.
The subject of intense leadership speculation, Zempilas’ campaign manager resigned over secret polling on the WA Liberal leadership, that triggered a leadership challenge. After calling for internal critics to “put up or shut up”, Mettam ultimately prevailed.
Community Independents
Kate Chaney rode the teal-wave in 2022 to win the federal seat of Curtin. Her federal electorate has seen a concentration of Community Independents, backed by Climate 200, for the state campaign; Councillors Lisa Thornton (Churchlands) and Rosemarie de Vries (Nedlands) and GP Rachel Horncastle (Cottesloe). The results in this part of Perth will be closely examined for any hints on whether locals would support Chaney again.
In Fremantle, business owner Kate Hulett is challenging WA Labor Minister Simone McGurk. Climate 200 is backing Hulett to the tune of $50,000 (more than any other state electorate). State Fremantle has voted Green once before, and Hulett’s calls to legislate an emissions reduction target will resonate (yes – WA is the only state without a legislated 2030 emissions reduction target). McGurk retained Fremantle with 57 per cent of first preference votes, ahead of the Greens, in 2021, and has a comfortable margin of 15.7 per cent two party preferred.
What will one vote, one value reforms mean for the Upper House?
In 2021, WA Labor won 22 out of 36 seats in the Legislative Council. During the term, WA Labor changed the state electoral laws, implementing a one vote, one value law for the Upper House. Essentially, instead of electing Upper House members representing six different regions, Western Australia has become one electorate. Those in favour argue the change creates a more equitable voting system, while opponents worry it will diminish the voice of regional communities.
Although the WA Liberals have committed to overturning this reform, the effect of the McGowan change will be felt at this election. WA Labor is unlikely to maintain a majority in the Legislative Council. Several parties see potential for holding the balance of power. Chiefly the Greens, who currently have one seat in the Upper House. PHON WA (that’s Pauline Hanson’s One Nation WA), Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice Party, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party all have eyes on picking up one seat. Talk about the wild west.
Let Roger be Roger
Odds are Cook is set to achieve what Steven Miles couldn’t and Jacinta Allen is finding increasingly hard – move out of the shadow of their hugely successful COVID premiers and lead a government in their own right.
With three senior ministers (Sue Ellery, John Quigley, David Templeman) retiring at the election, there is an opportunity for a significant reshuffle, and for Cook to make his mark on his cabinet team.
Just what Deputy-Premier Rita Saffioti, who is also Treasurer; Minister for Transport and Tourism, wants and gets remains to be seen. While fellow leadership contender, Amber-Jade Sanderson may land Energy and/or Finance. Stephen Dawson, Deputy Leader in the Upper House and Emergency Services Minister may be set to take Health.
Kimberley MP Divina D’Anna is firming as favourite to become WA Labor’s next Aboriginal Affairs minister, with current Aboriginal Affairs minister Tony Buti likely to be the next Attorney General. That leaves a question over who will take the other half of Buti’s responsibilities – education.
A reshuffle may also present an opportunity to promote hard working and well-respected backbenchers. Money’s on MLAs Meredith Hammat and Jessica Stojkovski, and Upper House MP Samantha Rowe.
Michelle Roberts is also retiring after 30 years in Parliament. The first female Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, Roberts is WA Labor’s longest serving MP. Of course, the Speaker’s Chair is often a handy position to have in any leader’s back pocket during a reshuffle.
Not long now …
Anthony Green called the 2021 WA State election for WA Labor 42 minutes after counting began. In 2017, it took 90 minutes. How fast will it be this time? That’s anyone’s guess.
Written by Jess Bukowski on the ground in Western Australia.
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