By Rebecca Thistleton, Victorian Executive Director.
Tasmania shouldn’t be discounted
Tasmania may only have five seats in the House of Representatives, but given Leonardo di Caprio has weighed in on local issues of late, the election profile of our smallest state is well worth a look.
Employment and the environment are consistent clashing points in Tasmanian election campaigns. This time, the fight is over salmon farming.
For background, The Guardian’s coverage of the issue is here. In short, the Albanese Government rushed through legislation before the election campaign, saying they were protecting salmon farming jobs. Those opposed to the legislation say the industry threatens the endangered Maugean skate. As the issue escalated, Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young brought a dead salmon into the Parliament and Leonardo di Caprio brought the issue to the attention of his 60 million Instagram followers.
Flash back to the 2004 election campaign: while the stand-out moment for many is the Latham vs Howard handshake, in Tasmania, 2004 was the campaign that then-Labor Opposition Leader Mark Latham committed to transitioning Tasmania out of forest logging and saving old growth forests. The CFMEU swung in behind John Howard. Labor had previously held all five Tasmanian seats, but lost Braddon and Bass to the Liberals and recorded a swing against in the other three.
In an election which many are tipping will result in a hung parliament, every single seat counts.
Seats to watch
Lyons is the seat to watch in this campaign.
While Liberal Party recorded a higher primary in Lyons last election, Labor won on preferences from the Greens and Jacqui Lambie Network. Labor’s Brian Mitchell held the seat on 0.9 per cent, but he is not recontesting.
Instead, Labor’s former state leader Rebecca White will run for Lyons.
Bass and Braddon are always interesting contests. These northern Tasmanian seats are traditionally marginal and have a history of swinging between major parties. Their outcomes are often seen as bellwethers for broader electoral trends.
Clark is held by independent MP Andrew Wilkie, this electorate’s preference distribution could be crucial in a tightly contested election.
Franklin is held by Labor’s Julie Collins, who is expected to retain the seat.
The Greens candidate for Franklin, Owen Fitzgerald, has had to withdraw as per Section 44 of the Constitution, as he has duel citizenship with New Zealand and is therefore ineligible to be a federal member.
However, Collins is also the minister responsible for fishing, so Franklin remains hotly contested.
Former Greens Senator Bob Brown has endorsed the Climate 200-backed candidate, Peter George, who is campaigning against salmon farming.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Accent and RedBridge data[1]
Voter issues
Besides employment, and the cost-of-living crisis dominating political debate nation-wide, polling has also shown a rise in concern about crime.
Similar to Victoria, Tasmania concern about crime has risen nine points—from 15 per cent to 24 per cent.
Tasmania also has the same number of senators as the other states, 12, which is remarkable given its population of just over half a million people. Six senate spots are up for election come May 3.
The Labor Government holds two seats, the Liberal Opposition hold two, and one is held by independent Andrew Wilkie.
There are 33 candidates in 12 groups, plus one un-grouped, running for the senate.
The six sitting senators whose positions are up for election, having last gone to the ballot in 2019, are all recontesting. They are Labor’s Catryna Bilyk and Carol Brown, Liberals Claire Chandler and Richard Colbeck, Greens Nick McKim and Jacqui Lambie.
Lambie was first elected in the 2013 election as a Palmer United candidate, taking up her position in July 2014 and resigning from Palmer’s party in November that year, before starting the Jacqui lambie Network.
Lambie was re-elected in 2016. Having inherited British citizenship, she was one of eight senators who lost their spot under Section 44 of the Constitution during the 2017-2018 “eligibility crisis”. She was re-elected in 2019.
End Notes
[1] Accent and RedBridge. (2024). The political landscape a year from the 2025 election. Accent Research and RedBridge. Accessed online: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-May-2024-for-web.pdf
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