By Hannah MacLeod, South Australian and Northern Territory Executive Director.
All eyes on SA and NT as crucial seats could tip the 2025 election
As Australia approaches the 2025 federal election, South Australia (SA) and the Northern Territory (NT)—despite their smaller size—each hold key seats that could shape the national outcome.
South Australia
In SA, the current distribution is 10 seats, with 6 held by the Australian Labor Party (ALP), 3 by the Liberal Party, and 1 by the Centre Alliance.[1]
SA’s only marginal seats are Boothby (held by the ALP) and Sturt (held by the Liberals). Both parties are running strong campaigns in each, with the Albanese Government hoping to retain or gain ground, while the opposition targets potential gains amid discontent over cost-of-living pressures and energy policy.[2] The State Labor Government, led by Premier Peter Malinauskas, continues to be popular amongst voters, with the Prime Minister and local candidates campaigning alongside him in order to leverage his popularity.
There has been little shift in primary votes of the parties, demonstrating SA’s stable political climate, and showing there is unlikely to be big surprises in the results.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Accent and RedBridge data[3]
Northern Territory
The NT’s two seats are both held by the ALP,[4] however Labor’s primary vote dropped from 38 per cent in 2022 to 34 per cent in 2024, while the Coalition’s vote increased from 29 per cent to 31 per cent. Support for other parties also surged from 19 per cent to 25 per cent.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Accent and RedBridge data[5]
Additionally, the 2024 NT election resulted in a substantial swing against Labor, leading to wipeout across the Territory, the loss of every seat it held in Darwin and Palmerston, and a now Labor opposition of just four bush seats.[6] This shift suggests vulnerabilities for Labor in the upcoming federal election.
Seats to watch
South Australia:
Sturt: Former Defence Minister Christopher Pyne’s seat, located in Adelaide’s eastern and north-eastern suburbs, Sturt has been a Liberal stronghold for over 50 years. However, Labor views it as a potential gain, especially with the presence of an independent candidate, retired GP Verity Cooper, who could influence the vote distribution.[7] The Liberals currently hold it with a margin of less than seven per cent.
Boothby: Situated in Adelaide’s southern suburbs, Boothby is currently held by Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost with a marginal 3.3 per cent lead. Traditionally a Liberal stronghold, changing demographics over the last three decades has made Boothby a focal point for both major parties due to its increasingly narrow margin.[8] The Liberals are running former member for Boothby Nicolle Flint who did not contest the last election due to health reasons.
Northern Territory:
Solomon: Solomon is an urban seat encompassing the greater Darwin metropolitan area—an area where Labor’s support plummeted in the August NT election.
Encompassing Darwin and Palmerston, Solomon has been held by Labor’s Luke Gosling since 2016. Despite an 8.4 per cent margin, the seat is on the Coalition’s radar, especially considering the NT election results, and the recent electoral boundary changes that have incorporated rural suburbs with a history of swinging towards the Country Liberal Party.[9]
Lingiari: In stark contrast, Lingiari, held by Labor by just 1.7 per cent, is the country’s second-largest electorate, stretching across 99.9 per cent of the NT. It also includes the Commonwealth’s external territories of Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.[10] Lingiari’s vast geography and significant Indigenous population make it a complex and contested seat, especially as demographic shifts and regional issues reshape the political calculus ahead of 2025.[11]
Historical voting trends, visualised in the graph below, show that while Lingiari was once a relatively safe Labor seat, its margin has narrowed over time. The seat was held by Labor’s Warren Snowdon’s since its creation in 2001 until his retirement. In 2022, with a new candidate in former NT Deputy Chief Minister Marion Scrymgour, Labor’s 2PP vote in Lingiari fell to just 51.7 per cent, making it more marginal than Solomon for the first time.
Covering the vast majority of the NT, Lingiari is notable for its low voter turnout, recorded at 66.8 per cent in 2022. Labor’s success here heavily relies on mobilising remote communities, making ground campaigns crucial.[12]
Source: McKell graphic sourced from The ABC Federal Election[13]
Ground-level concerns shape federal battlegrounds in SA and NT
Voters in SA and NT share several concerns with the broader Australian electorate, including cost of living, healthcare, and housing affordability.[14] Additionally, energy policy has emerged as a significant topic.[15] The Coalition’s proposal to cap renewable energy at 54 per cent and invest in nuclear energy has sparked debate, with analyses suggesting potential impacts on private investment in renewable projects.[16] This issue resonates in regions like SA, known for its renewable energy initiatives.
In Boothby and Mayo, for example, local frustrations over ambulance ramping and hospital wait times are becoming federal talking points, as voters seek national solutions to chronic health system pressures. In the outer northern suburbs of Adelaide—areas like Spence—concerns about rising insurance premiums due to increased flood risk are tying into broader conversations about climate adaptation and infrastructure resilience. Meanwhile, in regional electorates such as Grey, the condition of roads and the availability of mobile coverage and health services are key voter concerns, feeding into national debates about regional investment and equity.[17]
In the NT, voter frustration with crime and justice issues continues.
Local dynamics shake up safe seats in SA and NT
While most South Australian seats are expected to stay in familiar hands, Sturt is shaping up as a key battleground. Liberal MP James Stevens—despite his moderate leanings—has had to align himself with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s more hardline rhetoric, including pointed attacks on Indigenous spending. The move risks alienating an electorate that may lean more centrist in tone. South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas is actively backing Labor’s push, making Sturt a critical test of whether local Labor momentum can crack a traditionally blue-ribbon Liberal seat.
In Boothby, the contest is intriguing as it is between the former Liberal member who chose to step down due to health reasons, and the one term Labor incumbent.
In the NT, voter turnout, particularly in Lingiari, remains a serious wildcard. Just 67 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot in the last federal election, and the failed Voice referendum, has only further deepened disengagement among the NT’s Aboriginal voters. Add to that a weakened Labor ground game, with fewer volunteers to staff mobile polling booths since the NT election loss, and turnout is likely to remain worryingly low.
End Notes
[1] ABC. (2025). Electorates by State. ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/electorates-by-state
[2] Bermingham, K. (2025). Federal election love descends on marginal seats – will SA get much? The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/what-the-federal-will-mean-for-sa-marginal-seats/105106698
[3] Accent and RedBridge. (2024). The political landscape a year from the 2025 election. Accent Research and RedBridge. Accessed online: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-May-2024-for-web.pdf
[4] ABC. (2025). Electorates by State. ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/electorates-by-state
[5] Accent and RedBridge. (2024). The political landscape a year from the 2025 election. Accent Research and RedBridge. Accessed online: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-May-2024-for-web.pdf
[6] Green, A. (2025). Federal Election Preview: Northern Territory. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-nt
[7] Bermingham, K. (2025). Federal election love descends on marginal seats – will SA get much? The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-29/what-the-federal-will-mean-for-sa-marginal-seats/105106698
[8] Green, A. (2025). Boothby (Keay Seat) – Federal Election 2025. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/boot
[9] Green, A. (2025). Solomon (Keay Seat) – Federal Election 2025. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/solo ; Garrick, M. (2025). NT seats of Solomon and Lingiari change boundaries ahead of federal election. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-04/nt-solomon-redistribution-federal-election-gosling-bayliss/105003256 ; Garrick, M. (2025). Labor-held NT seat of Solomon in Coalition’s sighs this federal election. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-04/nt-seat-of-solomon-in-2025-election-contention-labor-coalition/104979592
[10] Green, A. (2025). Federal Election Preview: Northern Territory. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-nt
[11] Green, A. (2025). Federal Election Preview: Northern Territory. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-nt
[12] Green, A. (2025). Lingiari (Keay Seat) – Federal Election 2025. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/ling
[13] Green, A. (2025). Federal Election Preview: Northern Territory. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-nt
[14] Wockner, C. (2025). Cost of living, health, energy and technology among key voter concerns this federal election. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-27/federal-election-have-your-say-australian-government-voters/104983504
[15] Knight, B. (2025). These are your questions about energy policy ahead of the Australian election. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-09/energy-renewable-nuclear-coalition-labor-aus-election-2025/105147950
[16] Morton, A. (2025). Coalition nuclear plan will plough $58bn wrecking ball through renewable energy projects, analysis warns. The Guardian. Accessed online: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/10/coalition-nuclear-plan-will-plough-58bn-wrecking-ball-through-renewable-energy-projects-analysis-warns
[17] Green, A. (2025). Federal Election Preview: South Australia. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/preview-sa
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