By Sarah Mawhinney, Queensland Executive Director.
QLD in the 2025 federal election
It has long been said that the pathway to the Lodge goes through Queensland. This was largely true until the 2022 election where Labor not only failed to pick up any seats but also saw the loss of the former Prime Ministers seat of Griffith, once considered Labor heartland. Queensland looks to have returned to its former battleground state status with the pathway to majority Government for Labor reliant on pick-ups in QLD to offset excepted losses in other states.
Despite the dominance of State Labor holding Government for 30 of the past 35 years, Queensland is traditionally conservative leaning for Federal elections. Following the highwater mark of the Kevin Rudd ‘Rudd-slide’ victory in 2007 Labor has struggled to gain ground, failing to win more than eight seats in any election. In 2022, the Liberal National Party (LNP) dominated, winning 21 of Queensland’s 30 seats, while Labor secured 5, the Greens 3, and the impossible to shift Bob Katter from FNQ.
Notably, three seats Labor had hoped to claim instead went to the Greens, benefiting from Labor preferences. The three green pick-ups are seats to watch this election. Uncommon in Queensland, they will not feature a traditional contest between the two major parties. Instead, they will be three-way contests, with the Greens seeking to defend their surprise inner-city pickups from 2022.
QLD state election sheds light on voter mood
The 2024 QLD state election, held on October 26, 2024, provides interesting context for understanding voter sentiment ahead of the federal contest. In that election, the LNP, led by David Crisafulli, narrowly defeated the incumbent Labor government, ending nearly a decade of Labor dominance under Premiers Annastacia Palaszczuk and Steven Miles. The LNP secured 52 of the 93 seats in the Queensland Legislative Assembly with 53.8 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, while Labor won 36 seats with 46.2 per cent.[1]
This result marked a significant 7.0 per cent swing toward the LNP from the 2020 state election, reflecting growing voter discontent over issues such as youth crime, cost of living, housing, and healthcare. Public perception of both leaders’ performances was mixed leading up to the election, with survey results indicating that a significant portion of voters rated both Crisafulli and Miles as “neither good nor poor” or worse, underscoring a broader dissatisfaction with the political landscape.
Overall performance evaluation of QLD Premier and Opposition Leader shows mixed confidence (Feb ’24)
Source: McKell graphic sourced from RedBridge data[2]
Despite hailing from Queensland, it is becoming apparent that Dutton is not effectively translating the success of the state LNP across to the Federal campaign. The LNP’s state success, especially in traditionally strong state Labor regions like Mackay and Rockhampton consolidated the already strong conservative federal vote in these areas. This should bode well for the Federal LNP tilt however Dutton appears to lack the finesse or message discipline that was so evident in the state LNP campaign.
Seats to watch
Several Queensland seats are poised to be battlegrounds in 2025, where tight margins, shifting demographics, and a competitive primary vote share—Coalition at 39 per cent, Labor at 27 per cent, Greens at 13 per cent in 2024—could determine the election’s outcome.
QLD primary vote share largely unchanged from 2022 to 2024
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Accent and RedBridge data[3]
The following are seats to watch:
- Brisbane: Currently held by the Greens’ Stephen Bates with a margin of 3.7 per cent over the LNP. This seat was absolutely a surprise pick up for the Greens in 2022 and likely benefited from a strong Greens Campaign in Griffith. Won in a tight three-way contest, it is a critical battleground again in 2025 where Labor will need to claw into second place on primaries to be in with a chance.[4]
- Longman: Longman has been a seat passed back and forwards between the 2 majors for the last 20 years but not considered a true bellwether. Held on a 3.1 per cent LNP margin in a strong state Labor area, Longman could flip to Labor if voter frustration with infrastructure and services peaks.[5]
- Leichhardt: This is a seat Labor has hopes of gaining. With long term popular member Warren Entsch finally bowing out this is the best chance Labor has had to pick up the seat with the quality of the candidate and campaign reflecting their desire to take it back.
- Griffith: This is a battleground seat in QLD this election. A former Labor stronghold that saw a significant swing to the Greens in 2022 both the Green and Labor campaigns are throwing everything at this seat. The incumbent Green has built a cult like following with Liberal preferences set to determine the outcome.
- Bonner: An interesting seat to watch on the night the long term LNP member faces a late challenge from high profile former Brisbane City Councillor. Held on a 3.8 per cent margin the seat has been a notorious heartbreaker for Labor but with an almost 20 yr LNP back bench member Bonner could come in to play late.
Voter issues
Queensland voters are prioritising several key issues in this election:
Cost of Living
- Rising expenses, particularly in housing and utilities, remain a top concern. Both major parties have proposed policies aimed at easing financial pressures.
- According to QCOSS, Queensland had the highest number of housing distress listings, with 20,600 recorded in the year leading up to June 2024. Additionally, QCOSS’ 2024 cost-of-living survey found that four in five households were in debt, with families with children carrying the highest debt levels. More than half of those surveyed also reported feeling pressured to prioritise debt repayments over essential living expenses.[6]
Healthcare
- Access to quality healthcare, particularly in regional and remote areas, continues to be a significant issue. Labor has pledged increased funding for healthcare facilities and training programs.
Reducing crime
- According to recent data, Queensland has experienced the sharpest increase in public concern about ‘reducing crime and maintaining law and order’ among all states and territories, with its importance to voters doubling from 16 per cent to 32 per cent.[7]
Environmental Concerns
- Climate change and its impact on Queensland’s natural assets, such as the Great Barrier Reef, are shaping voter priorities, particularly in coastal electorates.
- A recent poll conducted by the Biodiversity Council found that 75 per cent of Australians support strengthening national environmental laws to protect nature, with only 4 per cent opposed and the remainder undecided.[8]While this data is national, it reflects strong sentiment likely shared by Queensland voters, given the state’s unique environmental challenges, such as the protection of the Great Barrier Reef and addressing deforestation.
What to watch
As the election draws closer, several factors could influence the outcome in Queensland:
- Rise of Independent Candidates: Well-funded independents, particularly in outer SEQ areas, could disrupt traditional voting patterns by focusing on local issues and dissatisfaction with major parties.
- Natural Disasters: Recent flooding in Queensland’s outback has drawn attention to disaster preparedness and response. The effectiveness of relief efforts could impact voter confidence in incumbents.
- Economic Indicators: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decisions on interest rates and their effect on mortgages and savings will be closely watched by voters.
End Notes
[1] Wikipedia. (2024). 2024 Queensland state election. Wikipedia. Accessed online: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Queensland_state_election
[2] RedBridge. (2024). Queensland vote intention and leader ratings. Redbridge. Accessed online: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RedBridge-Report-Qld-State-political-analysis.pdf
[3] Accent and RedBridge. (2024). The political landscape a year from the 2025 election. Accent Research and RedBridge. Accessed online: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-May-2024-for-web.pdf
[4] Canales, S. (2025). Battleground: the seats where the 2025 Australian federal election will be won and lost. The Guardian. Accessed online: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/28/battleground-the-seats-where-the-2025-australian-federal-election-will-be-won-and-lost
[5] ABC. (2025). Longman (Key Seat) – Federal Election 2025. The ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/long
[6] QCOSS. (2025). Queensland Budget 2025-26. QCOSS. Accessed online: https://www.qcoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/3.-Reduce-the-cost-of-living.pdf
[7] Roy Morgan. (2025). Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades. Roy Morgan. Accessed online: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9797-most-important-issues-facing-australia-january-2025
[8] Burnett, P., Ritchie, E., Dielenberg, D. (2025). Labor’s dumping of Australia’s new nature laws means the environment is shaping as a key 2025 election issue. The Conversation. Accessed online: https://theconversation.com/labors-dumping-of-australias-new-nature-laws-means-the-environment-is-shaping-as-a-key-2025-election-issue-248872
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