This is the sixth and final in a series of short briefings ahead of the October election.
Scroll down for our ‘Seats to Watch’ list.
The first week of early voting is done and one more to go before polling day.
Significant numbers are passing through pre-poll with the potential for record voting prior to the day.
Having made a significant splash with the free school lunches announcement at the launch the week saw no real new policy from the Premier.
Instead the Government were keen to hone in on their key messages of cost of living relief, investment in health care in contrast to the cuts they argue will come under a Crisafulli government with the Premier touring the state and visiting early voting centres.
The Government, seeking to capitalise on a weak point that is resonating with some voters, continued to double down on their attack on the Opposition Leader and opposition MP’s and candidates over their position on abortion.
A rare ill-disciplined moment on a booth from a former Newman Government MP and current candidate provided fuel to the debate and ensured it will carry through the last week and election day.
The Premier rounded out the week with a Sunday session at the New Farm Bowls club in the seat of McConnell.
The guest list was made up of Young Labor members, influencers and strong online supporters playing to strengths of his in this campaign of pitching for the youth vote and presenting as the more approachable leader.
The LNP were similarly light on policy however they did announce additional programs to address youth criminals Circuit Breaker Sentencing facilities to intensively rehabilitate offenders.
Given the LNP has well and truly positioned themselves on Crime this seems an unnecessary addition to what is now an extensive list of policies. With the announcement being made in Townsville it is likely a straight play to pick up all 3 local seats against a KAP challenge.
The rest of the week saw the LNP campaign reiterating their core campaign messages while the leader was seen across Queensland dropping in to pre-poll to support their target seats.
Sunday saw David Crisafulli officially launch his campaign with 6 days to go at the Ipswich Community Centre.
While touching on the four crises outlined during his term in opposition regarding health, housing, youth crime, and cost-of-living the focus was unsurprisingly crime with a new policy announcement focussing on consequences for children while they are in prison.
For a party that has been so consistently ahead in the polls it is hard to understand how little interest there appears to be in mapping out a bold economic plan to address the challenges of an ageing population, housing shortages and record population growth against that the opportunities the next decade and beyond present.
The launch created great optics and will have provided a boost for candidates and MP’s alike heading into the final stretch.
Ipswich might seem an odd choice of location for the launch but they may be looking to consolidate gains made in the region from earlier in the year with Ipswich considered a late pickup from a low key local MP and despite the pick up of Ipswich West at the by-election, the first term LNP MP sadly had to retire so might see a swing back towards the ALP.
For the keen political watchers – Ipswich was also the location for the launch of the then unassuming opposition leader Annastacia Palaszczuk in 2015 however polling would indicate that the result will be less of a surprise than 2015 was for all parties.
Both Miles and Crisafulli performed well in front of a packed house of mostly decided voters at the Media Club Leaders’ debate.
Miles was the feistier of the two interjecting more than Crisafulli but both held their lines and were successful in landing some hits so again a reasonably neutral affair.
Hard to see the need for a further debate but there will be a third held in the days before polling day.
Having entered the conversation with a bit of a bang KAP had a big week backing in the Townsville Enterprise ‘Unlocking the North’ priorities with Leader Robbie Katter committing to a new Charters Towers Hospital and more housing incentives.
KAP continue to run a hard anti major party, North Queensland focused campaign in an effort to bolster their numbers.
Having lit the fuse on the abortion debate Robbie Katter has backtracked on his vow to repeal abortion laws, KAP have now instead committed to introducing a Bill mandating care for a baby born alive.
Somewhat of a reprieve for Crisafulli although unlikely to lessen the Labor attack.
Like the majors there was no new policy and instead a focus on their already announced polices from The Greens.
They continue to spruik their direct campaigning strengths with their door-knock total rising from 100,000 to 125,000.
This is an extraordinary effort but with so many voting early this activity is increasingly unlikely to be persuading undecided voters.
With reports of strong Greens volunteer numbers on the pre-poll booths in their target seats it looks like efforts have wisely shifted away from the doors and on to the booths making these seats must watch on polling night.
One Nation defied a legal threat and again featured Robert Irwin in an episode of their please explain series in a reasonably obvious attempt to gain media attention so a success for them in motivating their base even if the content fails to get much of a broader mention.
James Ashby is still the only real possibility of a pick up at the state level but pollsters are predicting One Nation to poll in the mid teens across the state.
The Count
The Electoral Commission of Queensland has learnt from the council elections on a few fronts.
The pre-poll and polling day booths will have had more staff allocated than for the council elections.
This has ensured quicker voting and shorter lines during pre-poll which should carry across to polling day and will also ensure quicker counting on the night.
The second difference to the council election is the plan to count the pre-poll votes on the night seeking to ensure a clear result as soon as is practicable.
At the Council election in March the pre-poll booth was counted in the week following the election which meant that seats were considered in play for days longer than the final count suggested they should have been.
Pre-poll being counted at the same time as polling day booths should deliver a clear outcome on the night.
The final days of the campaign are shaping up to see record pre-poll and a few more surprises yet.
Policy in Focus
The LNP announced further crime measures Circuit Breaker Sentencing facilities and additional consequences for children while they are in prison.
McKell Policy
This week we released A Healthy Queensland: A Snapshot of the Queensland Health Sector.
As one of the largest health systems in the country, Queensland Health operates a diverse range of services, including public hospitals, community health centres, mental health services, and preventive health programs.
We look at the overall performance and funding of the health system, including elective surgery wait times, ambulance wait times and access to primary health care that shows a system that is on or above average in most measures.
Seats to Watch
In the Cairns region of the 4 seats held by Labor, Cook is at risk to a KAP pick up while Barron Riverwill likely fall to the LNP.
Cairns is held by a popular MP who could withstand the anti labor swing.
Mulgrave was one of the 7 retained by Labor in 2012 but saw a late retirement from the long term member and Speaker of the Parliament Curtis Pitt. Despite this, it should hold for Labor.
Labor will lose the 3 Townsville seats.
The unknown piece to watch on election night will be whether the KAP anti major party campaign results in a pick up of one or more of the seats of if the 3 go straight across to the LNP column.
Mackay and Rockhampton are interesting seats to watch.
Both were held against the Newman landslide in 2012 but with retirements of backbench MPs in both seats and a strong anti-Labor sentiment in regional Queensland, they could be in play on the night.
Keppel is likely a loss to the Government and will be a toss up between ONP who have been running hard and another LNP pick up.
The coastal quartet of Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Nicklin and Caloundra are all held by the Government on wafer thin margins and likely to fall to the LNP.
Outer Surburban seats in the south east corner like Springwood and Pine Rivers are at significant risk while polling has consistently held that labor seats held within the Brisbane Council boundaries should be ok.
This includes seats that traditional swing with the Government like Mansfieldand Aspley bucking that trend and holding for the ALP.
If this is the case strong local candidates will be a real factor in their retention.
The BCC stronghold for Labor excludes the inner city seats being targeted by the Greens with confidence growing that the swing is onto turn the existing progressive block of McConnel,Cooper, Millerand Greenslopes from red to green.
Picking up all four would be an extraordinary outcome for the Greens.
The Bayside seats of Capalaba and Redlandsare both likely to swing to the LNP on the back of tough campaigns.
Sadly for the stock of future ALP leaders, the highly impressive member for Gaven Meaghan Scanlan is a likely loss.
The Logan and Ipswich corridor has a number of Ministers across the Labor held seats. It is expected the vote will largely hold but seats like McCallister are at risk andIpswich West will stay with the LNP.
The LNP needs to win 9 seats to form government. Even the most optimistic in the ALP concede that this is almost a certainty, and the next Government will be formed by David Crisafulli.
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