Future Queensland – Election Briefing #1

This is the first in a series of short briefings ahead of the October election.

Last week marked the final sitting week of the 57th Queensland Parliament before the election due on October 26.

It was a full week with the Government seeking to fulfil its legislative agenda, tying up loose ends with several bills passing the House.

Both major parties also used the final week of question time to finesse attack lines and land some blows across the chamber with varying success.

The Greens used the final week to make a major announcement for plans to establish Queensland Minerals, a State Government-owned mining company that would expand critical minerals production.

With the Katter Australia Party having already added a new MP to their ranks 6 weeks ahead of the polls with the recruitment of former One Nation Member Stephen Andrew, they enjoyed a successful final week with the passing of the Crocodile Control, Conservation and Safety Bill.

9 valedictory speeches were delivered on the final day by retiring members – 5 for the Government and 4 from the opposition.

With the remaining sitting members confirmed and with only a few seats remaining outstanding for the major parties to fill, the contest now leaves the Parliamentary precinct and moves to the 93 electorates across Queensland.

Polling is an intrinsic part of any election and last week saw the latest Redbridge poll released covering the May-August period.

This poll covered the period when the majority of the government’s cost of living relief measures came into effect.

Consistent with the other published polls it offered a glimmer of hope for the government.

Redbridge reported a 5-point drop in the primary vote for the opposition from 47% to 42% and a 2-point bump in the 2pp for the Government.

This poll, however, continues to show the LNP ahead in a strong position with a 2pp lead of 54.5% to 45.5%.

The Redbridge poll also indicated a stronger vote for Labor in the inner city than the regions so with Parliament rising for the term it is likely the Premier will be hitting the road working his way up and down the coast.

Having articulated a bold policy agenda already, there will likely be standard local election commitments to come from the Premier but unlikely much more than that before the campaign launch.

The Opposition Leader will likely follow the Premier into the regions and spend substantial time in regional and rural Queensland but will also pay attention to potential pick-ups in the greater Brisbane region.

Having provided a masterclass in disciplined, small target and low risk campaigning to this point the Opposition Leader will need to start putting some detail to their policies and plans for the state.

If the opposition sticks to their small target strategy, they risk voters becoming cynical about a party ahead in the polls but with few plans as they start to switch on and pay attention closer to pre-poll.

The coming week will mark the unofficial start of the formal campaign period and brings with it a level of daily scrutiny unlike the rest of the term – despite the best laid plans surprises are inevitable.

The ability of the leaders and their respective campaigns to stick to the strategy and roll with challenges will be interesting to watch this week.

POLICY WATCH

The weekend saw the Government announce that 50c fares will continue after the election.

The opposition almost immediately announced they too will keep 50c fares with an expanded commitment to deliver improved public transport for regional Queensland and outer-suburban Brisbane.

 

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