On the eve of the 2025 election, we’ve made a final call on the seats to watch after the polls have closed.
In Queensland, despite a strong swing against Labor in the state election, the party is hopeful of picking up a few seats following a strong campaign and significant commitments. Labor will need success in Queensland to retain government and offset expected losses in Victoria.
But the electoral math won’t shift as much as previously expected in Victoria. Simmering underneath a steady set of seat numbers are electorates shifting in the wake of the pandemic, demographic changes, unaffordable housing and public attitudes towards the two major parties that cannot be ignored by either side.
In New South Wales, Labor’s high water mark from 2022 is unlikely to hold. However, with the teals likely to hold their seats won from the Liberals in 2022, NSW remains an unpredictable battleground.
Queensland
Griffith (GRN v ALP v LNP, Greens on 10.5 per cent )
Greens member Max Chandler-Mather has built a formidable reputation during his first term in parliament, and all eyes will be on Griffith come Saturday night.
The ALP and Greens ground campaigns have been fierce, and there are eight names on the Griffith ballot sheet. More than 50 volunteers have been at the early voting booths trying to get how-to-vote cards into people’s hands as they run the gauntlet.
It is likely the Greens will retain Griffith. But if Max’s style of politics has turned enough people off, Labor could be in for a good night given he has built the most substantial profile of the three Greens members who won around central Brisbane for the first time in 2022.
Brisbane (GRN v ALP v LNP, Greens on 3.7 per cent )
Brisbane was won from third place on primary in 2022, so wait for preferences to be distributed before popping the champagne or commiserating over the outcome.
Labor candidate Madonna Jarrett is running a second time, and the recent surge in Labor support may push this seat into the projected pick-up column for Anthony Albanese.
Leichhardt (LNP, 3.4 per cent)
With long-term far north Queensland stalwart Warren Entsch announcing his long overdue retirement, Leichhardt is finally in play.
Labor is running high-profile former basketballer Matt Smith (cue the copious social media post from his potential colleagues highlighting his height) against the LNP’s Jeremy Neal, a local paramedic.
Bonner (LNP 3.4%)
Bonner is the real bolter of the 2025 election in Queensland. Without a candidate until late January, Labor is in with a chance in Bonner to unseat the almost 20-year incumbent against all expectations. Hotly contested in 2013, 2016, and 2019, the 2022 campaign saw the Labor primary dip with the 2pp held up by a strong Green’s result, likely a flow over from the Chandler-Mather campaign in the neighbouring seat.
Labor is this time running a high-profile candidate in former Brisbane councillor Kara Cook against a long-term back bench MP. If Labor can pull this off, they’re well on their way to holding power.
Wild card to watch
Dickson (LNP held on 1.7 per cent, LNP v ALP v IND race )
Is Peter Dutton set to emulate his mentor and political hero John Howard by losing his own seat in a campaign to be Prime Minister?
The final round of polls had Dutton just ahead (although well within the margin of error) with strong races run by Labor’s third-time candidate Ali France and Climate 200-backed Independent Ellie Smith. Smith is running an open ticket and refusing to direct preferences, so the result is hard to call but will be fascinating to watch.
New South Wales
Richmond ( ALP 8.2%, ALP v GRN v NAT )
The 8.2 per cent margin in Richmond masks a serious issue for the Labor incumbent; the primary vote for Labor has dropped and the Green primary vote has risen to the point that, in 2022, Labor came ahead of the Greens by a mere 1.8%. The Greens have thrown everything at this contest, claiming up to 1000 volunteers will be out on the booths on election day. Despite the onslaught, Labor should hold albeit with a reduced margin.
Fowler ( IND v ALP, IND held 1.1%)
Fowler was a long-term Labor seat that, in 2022, was lost for the first time since its creation to an independent following the controversial preselection of the former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally. Tu Le, the local candidate preferred by retiring MP Chris Hayes in 2022, has been preselected for Labor this election, and the success of her on-the-ground campaign has seen the electorate gain increased attention from the Labor HQ. Labor has recently identified Fowler as a target seat, with a sharp spike in resources, ministerial visits and assistance being directed to the seat after the campaign was already well underway. Despite the campaign, Dai Le has proven to be a popular independent and tenacious campaigner, with a likely sophomore swing that will be hard to beat.
Gilmore (ALP 0.02%)
Gilmore looks likely to switch back to the Liberal Party after a strong campaign by former NSW Liberal Transport Minister, Andre Constance. Constance also mounted a strong challenge in 2019, with the incumbent’s margin taking a huge hit. This is a seat likely to go to the Liberal Party against the strong national swing back to Labor.
Calare (National 9.7% v IND)
This is a fascinating seat to watch. The incumbent, independent Andrew Gee, resigned from the Nationals in 2022 over the Voice to Parliament. Gee is contesting the seat against a Climate 200-backed independent candidate Kate Hook in what is traditionally a safe National seat. Calare is an interesting seat to watch, featuring a contest between traditional country issues and growing environmental concerns. One of the independents is in with a real shot to take the prized seat.
Bennelong (ALP held but notional LIB 0.04%)
Bennelong, the seat formerly held by Prime Minister John Howard, was an unexpected pick up in the 2022 election for Labor. The abolition of neighbouring North Sydney in the redistribution has shifted Bennelong eastward, effectively erasing incumbent MP Jerome Laxale’s majority and making it a notional Liberal seat. Homophobic comments made by the incumbent’s father have brought national attention to the seat in the final week of the campaign, and reflects the heat in the contest. Labor is hopeful to retain the seat.
Victoria
McEwen (Lab 3.8% v Lib)
Rapid population growth and shifting demographics have turned this outer-suburban seat into a true battleground. Cost of living, housing and infrastructure top the list of voter priorities here, but public angst towards politics and the major parties has hit a new volatile level.
Wannon (Lib 3.8% v Ind)
Independent Alex Dyson is challenging Liberal MP Dan Tehan in a regional race that signals changing political tides in rural Australia, but also demonstrates the potential impact of redistributions and population growth. Tehan has held the seat since 2010,
Kooyong (Ind 2.2% v Lib)
It’s one to watch, but Kooyong has had its own media cycle for the last two months. Everything that could possibly have been written has been covered for an electorate full of voters desperate for it to be over.
Pearce (ALP, 8.8 )
While Pearce has been considered a safe Labor seat, double-digit swings against the party in West Australian state seats within Pearce means it is in play. Over half its households carry home loans, making Pearce the most indebted electorate in Australia. Labor incumbent Tracey Roberts is defending her seat against former State Liberal MP Jan Norberger. Roberts disclosed in February this year that she was recently diagnosed with multiple systems atrophy, a rare neurological condition that affects speech and movement. If re-elected, she intends on serving her full term.
Western Australia
Bullwinkle (new seat, notionally ALP, 3.3 per cent)
The new federal seat is a three-cornered contest between Labor’s local nurse and councillor Trish Cook, Liberals former army officer, journalist and political staffer Matt Moran, and the Nationals’ former state leader Mia Davies. The federal government’s planned live sheep export ban is a key issue which has energised support for the Nationals and Liberals in rural areas.
The Liberals and Nationals have preferenced each other, meaning the road to a win is hard for Labor. Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras suggesting the winner will be decided by whomever comes second on the primary vote – if the Libs place second, the Nationals’ preferences will probably deliver the win, and vice-versa.
Curtin (IND v LIB, 1.3 per cent)
Independent MP Kate Chaney holds Curtin with a slim 1.3 per cent margin after turning the traditionally safe Liberal seat teal in 2022.reviously held by Liberal favourite, and former Deputy Leader Julie Bishop for 21 years, Curtin was once a jewel in the Liberal crown. The Liberals are intent on winning back the seat. Peter Dutton and Former Prime Minister John Howard have been on the hustings and reports are they spending more than $1.1 million. Kate Chaney, supported by Climate 200, is expected to spend at least $1.5 million.
Fremantle (ALP, 16.9 per cent)
Climate 200 backed Community Independent Kate Hulett is against Labor Assistant Minister Josh Wilson. Fremantle is a strong Labor seat held by Labor since John Curtin in the 1940s and Wilson currently holds the seat with 43.97% primary vote (66.89% 2PP). Hulett ran a strong campaign in Fremantle at the recent WA State Election, falling short by 424 votes. She has since thrown her hat in the federal ring, campaigning on issues such as cost of living, housing, environment, and energy and “proper scrutiny” of the AUKUS deal. Hulett has placed third on the how-to-vote cards of the Liberals, Greens and Labor which has boosted her overall chances.
Forrest (LIB, 4.2 per cent)
Forrest has been held by Liberal MP Nola Marino since 2007. Marino’s retirement and a strong campaign by Independent Sue Chapman, whose strategy takes inspiration from Helen Haines and the regional Victorian seat of Indi, has seen this once-safe Liberal seat in play. Former Senator Ben Small is running for the Liberal Party. A key local issue is an offshore wind project. Supported by Labor, Small opposes the renewable energy development, while Chapman is taking a more nuanced approach, citing the need for more community consultation, but not explicitly opposing the potential project
Moore (LIB, 0.9 per cent)
A Liberal seat by a margin of 0.9 per cent, Moore was the only one in Perth left to the Liberals following Labor’s strong polling in the West in 2022.Ian Goodenough has held the seat since 2013 but lost pre-selection to former Liberal MP Vince Connelly. Connelly, formerly the Federal MP for Stirling (2019-2022), lost a preselection bid for Moore and then unsuccessfully ran against Labor’s Anne Aly in Cowan in 2022 after his own seat was abolished. Goodenough is recontesting as an Independent, while Labor is running electrician and lawyer Tom French for the second time in that seat. In a sign there is no love lost between Goodenough and the Liberals, he is directing preferences to the Nationals in the Senate, while leaving his lower house how-to-vote card blank.
Tangney (ALP, 2.8 per cent)
Sam Lim, the dolphin trainer turned police officer, was an unexpected Labor winner in the 2022 election. , Tangney is a culturally diverse seat with more than 16 per cent of residents identifying as Chinese.. Liberal candidate Howard Ong is the conservative’s second choice. Former SAS solider and Survivor contestant Mark Wales won the preselection in mid-2024 but stepped down shortly afterwards citing family issues. Separately, Mr Wales had written a book depicting a Chinese invasion of Australia.
Both major parties are pouring resources and leader visits into Tangney, and analysts suggest a tight contest, with cost-of-living concerns and the government’s live sheep export policy featuring prominently in local debates.
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