By Acting CEO Sarah Mawhinney
The weekend saw the official launch of both campaigns with Albanese and Labor in Perth and Dutton in Sydney.
The Labor launch in Perth clearly sought to capitalise on the recent success of State Labor victory.
In WA Labor is fighting to retain the unexpected pick ups from 2022 and contest the newly created seat of Bulwinkle.
The big announcement of Labor’s launch was $10bn to help build 100,000 new homes across the country for new home buyers. This is another big pitch to the younger voting cohort the PM has invested heavily in swinging the ALP’s way.
Another new announcement came in the commitment to give all Australians an instant tax deduction on work expenses of $1,000, without receipts or paperwork, more than tripling the previous amount.
In addition to the new announcements the PM returned to the key policies of free TAFE and women’s equality and empowerment to strong support from the crowd.
The Opposition campaign launch was held in Sydney. This election has been the first campaign in living memory where neither party held their major launch event in Queensland.
Launching in Sydney continues the Liberal push for outer suburban Sydney pick-ups. This was reinforced with Dutton’s commitment for the first-ever Minister for Western Sydney, describing this patch as the most important battleground for this election cycle.
Speaking about the housing crisis, Dutton committed a Coalition Government would allow first home buyers of newly built houses to deduct mortgage interest payments from income taxes.
Dutton spoke to strengthening defense spending and also dropped in a commitment to stopping the boats.
Both launches will have rallied the faithful and with the few new commitments aside, largely reiterated the existing campaign messaging.
Fresh from the campaign launch, the Prime Minister headed to South Australia to campaign in the marginal seat of Sturt held on a wafer-thin .5%.
The PM then jumped over to Tasmania where the party is hopeful that State Labor stalwart Rebecca White is able to retain the marginal seat of Lyons following the retirement of long-term member Brian Mitchell.
The PM then headed to Victoria, shaping up as the battleground seat given the frequency of visits from the leaders before heading back to Sydney to prepare for the second debate (more below).
The PM then finished the Easter-affected campaign week in Brisbane, starting the day in the marginal seat of Bonner which the PM has been talking up in recent days as a new target in the mix.
The Opposition Leader had a week swinging from questionable strategy decision to another.
Monday saw Dutton’s son Harry enter the campaign in Brisbane lamenting he and his sister’s ability to save for a house deposit. This was an effort to highlight the challenges facing young people trying to get into the property market.
This was widely regarded as an odd proof point strategy given the Opposition leader’s extensive history in acquiring and selling property and the small fortune he has amassed from it.
Public pondering about whether the son of such a wealthy man could be locked out of the property marker took significant focus away from the Opposition campaign’s messaging.
Dutton then headed south to Victoria again where he set up shop for a couple of days, first visiting another petrol station with his candidate in Gorton which was an interesting choice given the strong 10 per cent Labor margin in the seat, before heading out across regional Victoria with son Harry in tow.
The Opposition leader then headed to Sydney for the debate, ending the week in Hunter with the candidate in the marginal seat of Paterson.
The Opposition leader followed up the distraction earlier in the week with a comment he has since apologised for regarding reports Russian planes would be based in Indonesia.
The apology only came, however, during the debate and so again meant that days were spent with fierce attacks from the Government.
While these issues are not likely significant vote changes in and of themselves. What they are evidence of is a campaign lacking in discipline.
Every party has a set policy, a set of messages they know if they can execute properly will lock in their core and bring the increasingly large swing voter block to them. To be successful the message needs to be consistent.
Dutton’s campaign, now in its third week, has struggled with discipline and created their own unnecessary distractions. They are running out of time to lock in before punters start to vote.
The Debate
The second debate was a publicly broadcast debate held in the new Parramatta studio of the ABC.
Both leaders were largely disciplined and on message. Neither strayed from their core lines and neither really landed a killer blow on the other.
As far as debates go it was a reasonably tame affair, perhaps the larger audience is to blame.
It will have largely impressed their base, but unlikely to have swayed too many swing voters.
There will be a final debate held next week on the evening that prepoll starts. With votes being cast and nothing left to lose, expect both leaders to dial up their pitch.
The Minors
Two of the highest profile Teals were caught up in an unhelpful integrity scuffle with Monique Ryan forced to defend Allegra Spenda’s payment of an influencer for content that was not declared as paid content.
The decrease in the share of the votes won by the majors continues bringing more traditionally safe seats in to play. The independent campaigns of Alex Dyson in Wannon, Caz Heise in Cowper and Kate Hook in Calare are hotting up and will be interesting to watch come the count.
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