By Rebecca Thistleton, Victorian Executive Director.
No one makes it to the Lodge without winning over Victoria
On paper, Melbourne’s outer-northern suburbs represent some of the safest state Labor seats in Victoria. This week the Liberal Party has launched negative advertisements, showing both the Prime Minister and Labor Premier Jacinta Allan on social media and on freeway billboards around these parts.
While the Opposition did little research or voter testing ahead of announcing their now-scrapped work from home policies, the messaging and billboard spend around McEwen suggests more effort has been made to assess Labor’s vulnerabilities on cost of living and crime in the seat, held by Labor’s Rob Mitchell on 3.3 per cent.
Crime and policing take centre stage for Victorian voters
Voters in Victoria are primarily concerned with economic and social issues:
- Cost of Living: A significant portion of the electorate is focused on day-to-day expenses, with 57 per cent of voters nationally identifying this as a top concern, an increase of 7 per centage points since 2022.[1]
- Crime and Law Enforcement: In Victoria, concern about crime has climbed significantly, rising from 14 per cent to 26 per cent—a 12-point jump that now sees more than one in four voters naming it as a top issue. The increase is especially pronounced in Melbourne’s west, where concern has grown from 13 per cent to 21 per cent since mid-2022. With over one in five voters in the area focused on crime, the issue gained added prominence during the February by-election in the state seat of Werribee.[2]
- Healthcare Services: Access to quality health services remains a priority, with 31 per cent of voters emphasising its importance. 84 per cent of Australians would like to see healthcare made free and universal at the point of use.[3]
Labor’s high watermark in Victoria isn’t expected to hold
Of the 38 Victorian seats in the House of Representatives, 24 are held by Labor. The rest are seven Liberal seats, three National, two inner-Melbourne seats held by teal independents, an independent member for Indi in the state’s north, and one Greens seat.[4]
The recent electoral redistribution in Victoria led to the abolition of the seat of Higgins, altering the state’s political map. This change, coupled with the rise of independent candidates in traditionally Liberal-held seats such as Goldstein and Kooyong, has reshaped the political dynamics.
Any gains for the Opposition won’t come easily. The Liberal Party is trying to win back the two seats in Melbourne’s affluent inner east, lost to the teals largely due to their lack of climate change action in 2022, while also trying to lure voters in outer-suburban areas. And, to do so with a leader who has never been popular anywhere in the state.
Despite the evolving landscape, the below graph shows that overall vote shares for the major parties in Victoria have remained remarkably stable between 2022 and 2024, with both Labor and the Coalition holding near-identical levels of support. This lack of movement highlights just how critical undecided voters and minor party preferences will be in determining the outcome in key marginal seats.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Accent and RedBridge data[5]
Around 10 Victorian seats in the spotlight for both major parties
At least 10 Victorian electorates are being closely monitored by both major parties due to their marginal status or shifting political sentiment.[6] Further afield, marginal Labor-held seats such as Dunkley and McEwen are also in focus. In Dunkley, the death of MP Peta Murphy in 2023 triggered a by-election that Labor retained but with a reduced margin, leaving the seat vulnerable.[7]
The 2024 redistribution abolished the seat of Higgins, prompting a reshuffle of surrounding boundaries that could influence contests in neighbouring electorates such as Deakin, a Liberal-held seat where Labor is making a determined push. Meanwhile, in regional Victoria, seats like Wannon and Nicholls are also on the radar, with independents and minor parties gaining traction in areas where dissatisfaction with the major parties is growing.[8]
Recent polling shows just how tight the race is. Among Victorian voters, the Liberal-National Coalition leads Labor in primary vote intention among men (47 per cent to 21 per cent), while Labor performs better among women (26 per cent to 35 per cent). The Greens and independents also attract significant support—particularly among female voters—highlighting the diverse electoral currents at play.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Resolve Political Monitor[9]
On the question of preferred prime minister, Anthony Albanese leads with 40 per cent, Peter Dutton follows at 33 per cent, and 27 per cent of voters remain undecided—underscoring just how many minds are still to be made up before election day.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Resolve Political Monitor[10]
Several key seats are set to be crucial battlegrounds in Victoria, reflecting both shifting political dynamics and voter concerns:
- Goldstein: Independent MP Zoe Daniel faces a strong challenge from former Liberal MP Tim Wilson. The contest is being watched as a litmus test for the staying power of the so-called “teal wave” that swept several inner-city seats in 2022.
- Kooyong: Held by independent Monique Ryan, this seat is again a prime target for the Liberal Party, which is deploying substantial resources in an effort to win it back.
- Dunkley: After a by-election win in 2024, Labor faces a real test in this marginal seat, especially with cost-of-living pressures dominating the local agenda.
- McEwen: Rapid population growth and demographic change have made this outer-suburban seat a genuine toss-up, with infrastructure and housing among the top voter concerns.
- Wannon: Independent Alex Dyson is taking on Liberal MP Dan Tehan in a regional contest that reflects broader shifts in rural political sentiment.
Spotlight on Kooyong: A High-Stakes Test for the Independent Movement
Kooyong: Once a Liberal stronghold and former seat of Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Kooyong fell to independent Monique Ryan in the 2022 teal wave. Now, the Liberals are pouring significant resources into reclaiming the seat, framing it as a key test of whether the independent movement has staying power or was a one-off reaction to the Morrison-era Coalition. The campaign has become increasingly heated, with sharp attacks, high-profile visits, and national media attention. The result in Kooyong won’t just determine who represents the electorate—it could signal whether a new kind of politics is taking root in Australia’s inner cities or whether traditional party allegiances are reasserting themselves.
Much was made of the financial investment which helped win teal vs incumbent contests of 2022. While the money supercharged these campaigns, the volunteer effort was critical. The waves of teal-coloured t-shirts making their way around affluent suburbs which aren’t used to head-to-head campaigns created a momentum and buzz that money alone cannot manufacture. In Kooyong, both sides spent ridiculous amounts on wallpapering Kew Junction. Only one candidate, Monique Ryan, had hundreds of people showing up for her.
This time, while Ryan still has a lot of local support, there isn’t the same level of discontent driving people who otherwise aren’t political party members or activists to knock on doors as there was in the last days of the Morrison Government.
The Liberal campaign is working hard to remind Kooyong voters of Ryan’s voting record, noting how often her votes have aligned with the Greens. Given lack of action on climate change was a big reason for Ryan’s initial community support, perhaps the Liberals are doing her a favour.
With national implications and plenty of local passion, Kooyong promises high drama on election night.[11]
End Notes
[1] Roy Morgan. (2025). Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades. Roy Morgan. Accessed online: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9797-most-important-issues-facing-australia-january-2025
[2] Roy Morgan. (2025). Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades. Roy Morgan. Accessed online: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9797-most-important-issues-facing-australia-january-2025
[3] Briggs, C. (2025). The major parties are helping create a generation of swing voters and it’s turning the campaign upside down. ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/swingers-major-parties-soft-voters-uncommitted/105118846
[4] Willingham, R. (2025). These are the Victorian seats to watch at the upcoming federal election. ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-30/federal-election-2025-victorian-seats-to-watch-analysis/105110328
[5] Accent and RedBridge. (2024). The political landscape a year from the 2025 election. Accent Research and RedBridge. Accessed online: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-May-2024-for-web.pdf
[6] Crowley, T. (2025). In an election where anything can happen, here are the seats that matter most. ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-28/federal-election-seats-that-matter-most/104934416
[7] Ortolan, M. (2024). Dunkley by-election result looms as test for Albanese, Dutton, as polling booths open. ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-02/victorian-dunkley-by-election-polling-booths-open/103526552
[8] Willingham, R. (2025). These are the Victorian seats to watch at the upcoming federal election. ABC. Accessed online: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-30/federal-election-2025-victorian-seats-to-watch-analysis/105110328
[9] The Sydney Morning Herald. (2025). Resolve Political Monitor. Sydney Morning Herald. Accessed online: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
[10] The Sydney Morning Herald. (2025). Resolve Political Monitor. Sydney Morning Herald. Accessed online: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
[11] Lucas, C. et. al. (2025). Victoria’s hot seats week one as it happened: Bruce is anything but a typical Liberal-Labor contest. The Age. Accessed online: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-s-hot-seats-live-updates-the-electorates-that-will-gauge-the-nation-s-mood-on-big-issues-during-the-2025-federal-election-20250330-p5lno1.html
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