By Marni Lefebvre, Senior Policy Analyst.
The 2025 election may be decided in NSW
NSW is shaping up to be the most consequential battleground in the 2025 election. With up to a dozen seats having the potential to change hands, both major parties are concentrating much of their efforts in appealing to voters across the state.
In 2022, unexpected pickups in NSW helped deliver Government to Labor after a decade in opposition.
Widely regarded as a high-water mark for Labor in NSW, it will be a challenge to preserve these gains in 2025.
The NSW landscape also shifted in 2019 with the Teals picking up three blue ribbon Liberal seats in inner city Sydney.
Nationally in 2022, a record 27 seats were decided without a Labor vs. Coalition contest, and this number could rise in 2025. A uniform swing of less than 1 per cent would cost Labor its majority, while the Coalition would need a 3.6 per cent swing to surpass Labor in seat count and 5.3 per cent to secure a majority.
Any seats Labor regains from the Greens or the Liberals reclaim from Independents would shift these dynamics. While opinion polls suggest a likely minority government, the magic number to secure a majority remains 76 seats
Labor currently hold 26 of 46 NSW seats, and have improved their polling
In NSW Labor currently holds 26 of the 46 federal seats. Nine of the 26 are held with margins of 6 per cent or less, making them the battleground seats for the upcoming election.
The traditional Liberal seats lost to the Teals will also make for interesting contests to see whether the protest vote against the ageing and out of touch Morrison Government can be converted into a second term in Wentworth and Mackellar. Recent polling data from April 2024 to March 2025 shows a tight race between Labor and the Coalition, with Labor leading most months—reaching 53 per cent in March 2025 against the Coalition’s 47 per cent—though the Coalition briefly surged to 52 per cent in January 2025, reflecting a close contest with margins often within 2-6 points.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from The Morgan Poll[1]
About a dozen seats are on a knife’s edge
Around a dozen seats, primarily held by Labor, have the potential to change hands on May 3.
Many of these are in outer suburban areas, where households are particularly affected by the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and are front-and-center in the Opposition’s target list.
Bennelong – This was a surprise pick up for Labor the 2022 election. Held only twice for a total of six years by the Labor Party in its 76 year history and regarded as again notionally Liberal after the recent redistribution, it will be a tough contest for incumbent Jerome Laxale to hold on.
Gilmore – Once a Liberal stronghold Gilmore was won in 2019 against the tide. Labor’s Fiona Phillips faces a strong challenge from Liberal, and former state minister, Andrew Constance on his second attempt.
Robertson – Robertson is a true bellwether seat having gone with government at every election since 1983; Labor’s Gordon Reid is a formidable member up against former the Liberal MP to hold the seat Lucy Wicks.
Paterson, Hunter, Shortland – The three Labor held seats in the Hunter are worth watching. Paterson is considered the most at risk of changing on the night. Hunter’s Dan Repacholi has built a cult like following since his election. With Dutton nominating Liddell as a location for one of his proposed Nuclear Power Stations there is a lot at stake in the Hunter.
Parramatta – The seat of Parramatta has become a marginal seat following a redistribution but should hold. Andrew Charlton has an extensive resume in and around the highest offices in former governments, expect him to be promoted in the next Government if Labor can hold on.
Werriwa – Historically Labor but changing demographics bring it in play this time. The Liberal machine is fighting hard in this seat and hopeful for a pickup.
Bradfield – Traditionally a Liberal blue ribbon seat. The recent announcement that the longtime member is retiring at the 2025 election means the seat is now in play with a potential Teal pick up.
Macquarie and Greenway – While not marginal following the 2022 election, Macquarie and Greenway have always been hotly contest seats. The local MPs are battle ready and likely to hold.
Richmond – Richmond is a key seat, with climate change continuing to be a major issue, particularly after Ex-TC Alfred and severe floods in the region in recent years. In 2022, Labor’s primary vote fell to 28.8 per cent, while The Nationals dropped 13.5 per cent, likely due to anti-Morrison sentiment. If The Nationals recover and Greens gain from Labor, Labor risks slipping to third. Labor’s main challenge, here, is boosting their primary vote.
Eden-Monaro – Dutton’s rhetoric on public servants centres on Canberra, but Eden-Monaro—once a bellwether—has many, particularly in Queanbeyan and Goulburn. Labor’s Kristy McBain narrowly won the 2020 by-election after Mike Kelly’s resignation, then expanded her margin from 0.8 per cent to 8.2 per cent in 2022. A redistribution trimmed that by two points, but with public servants valuing flexibility and remote work, the seat is unlikely to reclaim its bellwether status.
NSW is on the frontline of cost-of-living and housing crises
Nationally, voter concerns ahead of the election are primarily focused on the rising cost of living (57 per cent, up 7 points), crime and law and order (23 per cent, up 10 points), and immigration and population growth (14 per cent, up 8 points). These issues reflect growing financial pressures, safety concerns, and the impact of high immigration and housing affordability (see Figure 2).
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Roy Morgan, Top 10 Issues[2]
In NSW, cost of living and housing affordability are set to be key voting issues, with the situation particularly dire in 2025. Almost 1.6 million NSW households are experiencing rental or mortgage stress, highlighting the severity of the crisis.[3]
Over 58 per cent of low-income households in NSW are experiencing rental stress, and more than half of private renters in Greater Sydney live in poverty. [4] This is true particularly in Western Sydney, where regions like Liverpool (Fowler), Casula (Werriwa), and Chipping Norton (Fowler) have the highest levels of mortgage and rental stress in the country.[5] Around 39,000 households in these areas are struggling with mortgage repayments, while 13,685 rental households face significant stress.[6] The issue is compounded by high demand and limited supply, with the mean price of residential dwellings in NSW reaching $1,214,100 as of December 2024, the highest in the nation.[7]
Rising inflation, increasing mortgage repayments, and tax bracket creep are all contributing to the strain on household budgets across NSW.[8] Many families are being forced to make difficult choices between essential expenses, with 61 per cent of those considering or receiving food and financial assistance reporting that housing affordability is significantly impacting their daily lives.[9] This financial pressure is not only shaping household decisions but also influencing the political landscape across NSW, where ideological divides reflect differing perspectives on economic policy and social support.
NSW will be won by appealing to the center, not the margins
The self-reported ideological diversity across NSW’s federal divisions shows a clear urban-rural divide in voter sentiment (Figure 3). The significant centrist population in most divisions, often around a third of voters, suggests that appealing to moderate voters will be crucial for parties in the upcoming federal election.
Source: McKell graphic sourced from Accent and RedBridge data[10]
Keep an eye on Fowler on election night
Fowler – In the 2022 federal election, the government lost the traditionally safe Labor seat in Western Sydney to Independent Dai Le. The loss stemmed from Labor’s controversial decision to parachute Kristina Keneally into the area, which was criticised for not representing the electorate’s diverse Vietnamese Australian community. Labor is now aiming to reclaim the seat by running Tu Le, a Vietnamese Australian lawyer who was overlooked by Labor in the previous preselection. This reflects a shift towards stronger local representation in the area.
By Marni Lefebvre, Senior Policy Analyst.
End Notes
[1] Roy Morgan. (n.d.). The Morgan Poll. Roy Morgan. Accessed online: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings
[2] Roy Morgan. (2025). Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades. Roy Morgan. Accessed online: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9797-most-important-issues-facing-australia-january-2025
[3] Bowden, T. (2025). The terrifying number of Australians in mortgage or rent stress. Realestate.com.au. Accessed online: https://www.realestate.com.au/news/the-terrifying-number-of-australians-in-mortgage-or-rent-stress/
[4] NCOSS. (date). NSW Budget 2024-25 Analysis: Housing and Homelessness. NCOSS. Accessed online: https://www.ncoss.org.au/nsw-budget-2024-25-analysis-housing-and-homelessness/
[5] Bowden, T. (2025). The terrifying number of Australians in mortgage or rent stress. Realestate.com.au. Accessed online: https://www.realestate.com.au/news/the-terrifying-number-of-australians-in-mortgage-or-rent-stress/
[6] Bowden, T. (2025). The terrifying number of Australians in mortgage or rent stress. Realestate.com.au. Accessed online: https://www.realestate.com.au/news/the-terrifying-number-of-australians-in-mortgage-or-rent-stress/
[7] ABS. (2025). Total Value of Dwellings. ABS. Accessed online: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/total-value-dwellings/dec-quarter-2024
[8] NSW Government. (2025). NSW Budget 2024-25. NSW Government. Accessed online: https://www.budget.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-09/Budget-Paper-No.1_Budget-Statement-Budget-2024-25.pdf
[9] The Mirage. (2025). Budget 2025: Cost-of-Living Crisis Worsens, Study Finds. The Mirage. Accessed online: https://www.miragenews.com/budget-2025-cost-of-living-crisis-worsens-study-1431769/
[10] Accent and RedBridge. (2024). Left| Right | Out. How voters perceive their own politics and relative positions of political parties in a left/right ideological space. Accent Research and RedBridge. Accessed online: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-ideology-report-v2.pdf
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