This is the final wrap up in a series of short briefings ahead of the October election.
A week on from the election and the dust has now settled.
While the ECQ waits on the final trickle of postal votes there is little doubt where the final seats will land.
As expected David Crisafulli is the new Premier of Queensland following an almost perfectly executed campaign strategy.
They kept their focus tight; they refused to be drawn on distractions and with the exception of the issue of abortion almost entirely stayed on message.
Extraordinarily the new Premier led a team that exhibited almost unheard-of levels of discipline in to Government.
Their focus was on winning government, they understood their brief and the entire LNP team, from the top down, were clinical in the execution of their plan.
After being sworn in on the Monday the new Premier and Deputy had a quiet week of low key photo opp visits with the exception of the announcement on Thursday that they would officially cancel the Burdekin Pumped Hydro project and the Truth Telling Inquiry.
Both of these announcements were flagged prior to the election so were expected.
After a weeklong wait, and the appearance of the transition to government team being either flatfooted or unprepared, Friday saw the announcement of the full make up of the Ministry only moments before the official swearing in ceremony.
Having committed to no changes in his Shadow Ministerial team if elected he unsurprisingly broke this promise but rather than make way for newly elected MP’s as expected they really only shuffled the deck chairs with portfolio shifts so a minor broken promise at best.
The end of the week saw the Government announce late on Friday that in total 10 Director Generals would be replaced having already replaced the Director General of Premier and Cabinet earlier in the week.
In opposition the new Premier had committed to only small changes so this change accounts for the second broken promise in the first week.
More than that the sacking of the 10 of the most senior, in many cases long term Public Servants establishes a concerning starting point for the incoming Government’s views on the role of the Public Service and risks compromising the quality of advice they receive.
The count on the night gave the impression of a closer result. The seats in play were consistent with our last briefing with only a couple of predictions off – read it here.
Because of the number of votes cast during early voting, and the strong vote for the ALP on the day, seats were considered in play for longer than they should have been.
When the prepoll booth votes were finally added to the count close to 11pm it became clear that the LNP would achieve majority Government in their own right, and are now on track to finish with 52, one more than the previous Miles Government.
This is a resounding result, picking up a total of 18 seats and holding off a strong push from the Katter Party in the North.
The loss for Labor is significant but considered a far better outcome than the one they feared.
They will finish with 35, crucially retaining future leaders in Gaven, Aspley and Bundaberg and the addition of the new member for Sandgate.
With the pick ups of Ipswich West and South Brisbane returning to Labor the overall provides for some positive to be taken from the loss and are considered an endorsement of a strong campaign from former Premier Steven Miles.
Positives aside the ALP cannot ignore the significant challenge that exists in for them in regional Queensland.
The ALP will need to work hard to rebuild trust with regional voters who turned against them, particularly in former strongholds like Mackay and Rockhampton. Failure to do so condemns Labor to an extended period in opposition.
The first Opposition caucus meeting was held yesterday, officially endorsing Steven Miles as Opposition Leader and Cameron Dick returning as his Deputy – both unopposed.
The Opposition Shadow Ministry team has also been endorsed by their caucus with portfolio’s being allocated later in the week.
Opposition is an entirely different beast to Government but the Labor team will need to learn quickly given none of the Labor MP’s having ever served in Parliament in Opposition.
One Nation failed in Keppel and the KAP held their 3 heartland seats on the fringes of Townsville.
The real loser from the night are the Greens who not only failed to pick up any of their target seats but also lost South Brisbane after only 1 term.
It serves as a lesson that no ground campaign can overcome a message that doesn’t resonate with voters.
Political parties need to get the balance right between talking about issues that matter to their internal membership while understanding the issues that are affecting the broader electorate.
Parties that fail to figure this out risk becoming an advocacy group rather than a viable political entity.
The Australian Electoral Commission will need to learn from the Queensland count ahead of the next Federal election due by May 2025.
Federal electorates are significantly larger and with the preference for early voting growing this serves to make the count on the day an almost pointless indicator, particularly if the campaign narrative shifts in the 2 weeks of early voting.
The Government has scheduled 2 sitting weeks before the end of the year to move legislation on their signature policies and get on with their first 100 days in Government plan.
Premier Crisafulli’s first days have been calm with his considered and methodical approach as Opposition Leader carrying across to Government.
The new Premier and his team have been impressive so far but the question will be can his team repay him with ongoing discipline as they shift from Opposition to the much harder task of governing the great state of Queensland.
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